A guide to the percentages

Favorability is the model’s estimate of how often each team would win this matchup under the current assumptions. A 60% team is favored, but the 40% underdog still has a very real path to winning.

These are not betting odds or a prediction of the final score. Week 1 estimates are intentionally pulled closer together, and division matchups stay more competitive because those games are often unusually volatile.

Power rankings answer a simple question: how strong does the model think each team is right now? Playoff projections answer a different one: how likely is that team to survive its actual schedule and conference race?

A highly rated team can face a difficult path, while a slightly weaker team can benefit from its schedule or division. That is why ranking position, projected record, and playoff chance will not always line up.

Completed games replace predictions with actual results. Team ratings and projections then respond to opponent quality and performance, while future matchups continue to use the latest available information.

Each game’s displayed prediction is saved before kickoff so the Performance scorecard can judge the model fairly instead of rewriting history after the result is known.

Pretzel Quest does not copy betting markets, expert power rankings, or fantasy projections. It also avoids grading every draft pick or routine roster move, where confident-looking adjustments can quickly become guesswork.

The model cannot fully capture locker-room chemistry, scheme fit, weather surprises, or every injury. Rare manual adjustments are reserved for clearly important situations and are labeled on the Picks page.